OK, let's face it, the 900 ex-officio delegates (MPs, Senators, former candidates, riding presidents) at the Liberal leadership convention in Montreal are not going to vote for sixth place in Quebec centralist Gerard Kennedy.
University dropout Gerard Kennedy will obviously be in forth place in the first ballot results, far behind Stephan Dion.
So the question is, on the second ballot, who will get the support of the few Gerard Kennedy delegates that bother to show up? (The Gerard Kennedy delegates are required to vote for him on the first ballot only).
Conventional wisdom would dictate that his supporters will go to Bob Rae or Stephan Dion. However, many delegates support Kennedy's renewal platform, and nothing else. It would be hard to argue that Michael Ignatieff wouldn't put a new face on the Liberal party. He has demonstrated that quite clearly with his outspoken positions on Israel and Quebec's place in Canada. Dion's vision is the status quo. And Bob Rae? Well, I still can't figure out why he left the NDP. But maybe Kennedy supporters will have a better time figuring that out.
Many Gerard Kennedy supporters have a mean anti-Quebec, anti-French streak. I expect those delegates will go over to Rae. Although some would argue that Dion is the most anti-Quebec candidate, being from Quebec would disqualify him.
What do you think?