2013-02-06

A Maximum of 20 million People Have Viewed House of Cards


I previously called House of Cards a hit, but that was based on comments on Twitter. I've introduced some fuzzy logic. Psy's Gangnam style has been viewed 1.2 billion times, yet has only received 7 million ratings, or 0.59%. For each rating, the video has been viewed 168 times. Part of the explanation for that is many people will have watched the 4 minute video over and over, yet only rated it once. As well, I'm pretty sure you have to be logged into Youtube to rate a video. With Netflix, few if any people will have viewed House of Cards 20 times and only rated it once. Also, you have to be logged into Netflix to view a video, so there is one less step to rating.

The Netflix experience is probably different than Youtube. I suspect the average viewer per Netflix account is significantly higher than one. An account is, after all, $8 a month. You can only rate once per Netflix account. An other defence of House of Cards is that many people will wait until they have finished the 13 episode season before rating the show. Only the insane have already viewed the 11 hours of House of Cards made available by Netflix 5 days ago. Still, you can rate the series, or even an episode, without having viewed the entire series. I suspect it is more than 0.6% that have done so.

So with that disclaimer out of the way, here is my conclusion: Best case scenario, 20 million people have viewed 1 or more episodes of the 2013 US version of House of Cards. 
Math: 120,000 X 168 =  20,160,000 people. Since the average rating for House of Cards is 4.6 stars out 5, we can assume most of those viewers will eventually view each of the 13 episode.

These days, you usually need a karaoke machine to reach 20 million people an episode. 

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