A tight 3 way race. Isn't democracy great. But the Conservatives have more money than the Liberals or NDP.
The NDP is going to win Quebec (Quebeckers despise both Harper and Trudeau).
But many people in other regions will still vote Conservative. The Conservatives can win.
Influencing voters, and overcoming (sometimes justified) apathy, is expensive.
If you make a $500 donation to the federal NDP, it will only cost you $150 after tax rebate. $150 over 4 years is only 10 cents a day (0.1 X 365 X 4)
Think about how much the Conservatives have already cost Canada, and, more importantly, you: Needless defence spending, commercials for non-existent federal programs, income splitting, less accurate Canadian census, etc...